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Incredibly, long-term interest rates continued their plunge into record low territory throughout the month of July. Sluggish economic reports kept rates moving lower.
July 1
During the first week of July, the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) dropped to 4.58 percent, excluding points, down from 4.69 percent the previous week, also an all-time record low. One year earlier, the average rate was 5.32 percent. Rates on 15-year FRMs fell to 4.04 percent, from 4.13 percent, while one-year adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) moved upward to 3.80 percent from 3.77 percent the week.
"Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages and the 5-year hybrid ARM fell once again to all-time record lows this week in a period where the economy struggles to gain momentum and inflation remains very low," explained Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.
July 8
The rest of the month rates on 30-year FRMs barely inched down, starting with a slip to 4.57 percent in the second week. Fifteen-year FRMs grew to 4.07 percent and one-year ARMs slid to 3.75 percent.
July 15
Rates held steady during the next week, remaining at 4.57 percent for 30-year FRMs, tiptoeing down to 4.06 percent for 15-year FRMs, and declining to 3.74 percent for one-year ARMs.
July 22
"The decline in mortgages rates over the past few weeks echoes the recent signs of weakening confidence in the strength of the economy, particularly the housing and consumer sectors," said Frank Nothaft of the fourth week rates. "....We see these [signs] as part of the normal pattern of ebbs and flows in recovery and believe that there is sufficient momentum to carry the U.S. economy forward, albeit moderately."
The 30-year FRM dropped to a new record low of 4.56 percent, 15-year FRMs fell to 4.03 percent, and one-year ARMs sank to 3.70 percent.
What's Next for Interest Rates?
Two straight months of new record lows in long-term rates is quite extraordinary and it would be hard to believe that things could continue downward for another 30 days. Still the Conference Board's Index in July showed that consumer confidence is down again, by four points following a 10 point drop in June. With so little confidence in the economy, the markets may continue to flounder and it is possible rates could inch down further.
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